🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Trader Earned $436,000 on Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader just before it was publicly declared, sparking debate about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be no longer in control by the end of January surged in the time leading up to Donald Trump stated on January 3rd that Maduro had been seized. A single trader, which joined the platform in December and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a starting bet of over $32,000. It remains unclear. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Market statistics shows that participants put the odds of a political change at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. However the odds had climbed to 11% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the first hours of January 3rd, pointing to a sudden change in positions right before the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a bet based on inside information," stated Dennis Kelleher. Several of other platform users also made significant sums from similar wagers. Legal Questions Intensifies Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. A new rule introduced on recently aims to prohibit federal workers from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet. Market Background Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with traders able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to political events. The industry faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting industry. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."